McKinsey опубликовала результаты исследований влияния пандемии COVID-19 на международную экономику. Эксперты пришли к выводу, что страны Азии продемонстрировали значительно больше успехов в восстановлении экономики, нежели мир в целом. Кроме того, исследователи отмечают, что европейские энергетические рынки вступили в период беспрецедентных изменений. К каким еще интересным выводам пришли аналитики, читайте в октябрьской информационной записке компании
This week, McKinsey experts examined the Asian postpandemic economy and looked into other regional issues including trends reshaping Europe’s power markets, how the United States can decarbonize its power system by 2035, and Germany’s journey toward net zero. Within these deep dives in specific regions are global lessons, including the need to massively accelerate renewable energy generation and to truly understand the digital-native consumer.
Two years since McKinsey labeled this the Asian century and in the wake of the extraordinary shock of COVID-19, the region is exhibiting remarkable resilience. The Asian economy contracted by 1.5 percent in 2020, while the world economy shrank by 3.2 percent; Asia is expected to rebound faster both this year and next. Windows of opportunity for Asia include leveraging regional trade networks, boosting growth through innovation and productivity, putting climate change at the top of the corporate and policy agenda, and serving a changing consumer sector.
European power markets have entered a period of unprecedented change. Power prices have risen to about four times the historical average in a number of European countries. More uncertainty lies ahead: electricity demand is expected to increase steadily in Europe, due in part to electrification of transport (exhibit). A future energy system dominated by intermittent renewable power raises questions about total-capacity rollout. When utilities and large power buyers face such question marks, strategic risk management becomes a matter of survival.
In April 2021, the United States set a target to create a “carbon pollution-free power sector by 2035.” McKinsey experts present a potential “zero-by-35” decarbonization scenario for the United States in which each regional power market would reach net-zero greenhouse-gas emissions without offsets from other sectors.
Achieving climate neutrality by 2045 is feasible for Germany, though daunting. Our research shows that the transformation to net-zero emissions can be achieved at net-zero cost for society as a whole, delivering a favorable business case for Germany and a leap to a new technological age. Germany has to tackle key challenges in the five most emissions-intensive sectors: energy, industry, transportation, buildings, and agriculture.
Here are some of this week’s other key findings from our research:
- Traditionally, earnings per share is viewed as a major driver of returns to shareholders. But our historical and updated analyses point to economic profit as a better indicator of corporate performance. McKinsey experts explain why investors should examine a company’s total profit after the cost of capital is subtracted.
- COVID-19 forced colleges and universities worldwide into online education. McKinsey identified the best online higher-education practices by surveying academic research as well as the reported practices of more than 30 institutions, and by conducting ethnographic market research. Vital building blocks include creating a seamless journey for students (single sign-on is key), adopting an engaging approach to teaching, and facilitating interpersonal connections.
- Shareholders in semiconductor companies have seen high double-digit returns throughout the pandemic, despite supply-chain issues and growing divergence in global trade. To keep the momentum going, semiconductor players might want to consider focusing on gaining leadership in profitable segments by leveraging M&A and partnerships, building agility, and pursuing new technologies and innovations.
- COVID-19 has been hard on fashion: apparel companies lost more than 90 percent of their profits in 2020, according to the McKinsey Global Fashion Index. Data will be the key for the fashion industry to unlock the insights needed to reengage customers in the coming months and years.
Our Author Talks series features Emory University law professor Dorothy A. Brown, a nationally recognized scholar on race, class, and tax policy, about her latest book, The Whiteness of Wealth: How the Tax System Impoverishes Black Americans—and How We Can Fix It (Crown, March 2021). US tax policy often favors behaviors and activities more common among White households, putting Black taxpayers at a disadvantage.